From: Subject: THE END OF THE AGE OF OIL Date: Tue, 13 Jun 2006 15:46:37 +0530 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_014C_01C68F00.8E567300" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.2869 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_014C_01C68F00.8E567300 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://pr.caltech.edu/periodicals/CaltechNews/articles/v38/oil.html THE END OF THE AGE OF OIL
   

THE=20 END OF THE AGE OF OIL
By David=20 Goodstein

This=20 article is adapted from a talk that Caltech vice provost and = professor of=20 physics and applied physics David Goodstein presented at an April = 29=20 program of the Institute support group, the Caltech Associates.=20 Goodstein=92s new book, Out=20 of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil, was published in = February by W.=20 W. Norton. On December 5, the New York Times Book Review named Out = of Gas=20 one of its 100 Notable Books of the Year.


In the=20 1950s, it=20 was not Saudi Arabia but the United States that was the world=92s = greatest=20 producer of oil. Much of our military and industrial might grew = out of our=20 giant oil industry, and most people in the oil business thought = that this=20 bonanza would go on forever. But there was one gentleman who knew = better.=20 He was an oil exploration geologist named Marion King Hubbert. =

In about=20 1950, Hubbert realized that the trajectory of oil discovery in the = continental United States was going to be a classic bell-shaped = curve, for=20 the decades from 1910 to 1970, in billions of barrels per year = (see figure=20 1, below). He also saw that there would be a second bell-shaped = curve that=20 would represent production, or consumption, or extraction. The oil = industry likes to call it =93production,=94 but the industry = doesn=92t really=20 produce any oil at all. It does, however, reflect the rate at = which we use=20 the oil up. Perhaps you could call it supply.

Hubbert=20 realized that using what he knew in 1950 about the history of = discoveries,=20 along with what was already known about consumption, and a little=20 mathematics, he should be able to predict that second bell-shaped = curve.=20 And so he did (see figure 2, below). The red, bell-shaped curve is = the=20 kind of curve he predicted. The black points are the actual = historical=20 data, and the uppermost point represents what has come to be known = as=20 Hubbert=92s Peak. Obviously, he was doing something = right.


=A9 BP

The situation=20 worldwide is a little less well-determined. A third graphic = provided by=20 the energy conglomerate BP, shows what the world=92s known crude = oil=20 reserves are (see figure 3, left-hand graph, below). The amount = that we=20 have now is a trillion barrels of oil. So people in the industry = might=20 say, we have a trillion barrels just sitting there waiting to be = pumped=20 out of the ground; we=92re using it up at a rate of about 25 = billion barrels=20 a year, and so we have 40 more years to go=97there=92s nothing to = worry about.=20 But as Hubbert has shown us, that=92s the wrong way of looking at = it=20 .


=A9 BP

Before we=20 leave that curve, though, I want to point out that a sudden jump = of=20 300=96400 billion barrels of oil in OPEC (the Organization of the = Petroleum=20 Exporting Countries) reserves occurs in the late 1980s (see figure = 3,=20 left-hand graph, above). But there were no significant discoveries = of oil=20 in OPEC countries during that period. What happened instead is = that OPEC=20 changed its quota for how much each country could pump on the = basis of=20 what it claimed in reserves, and politicians discovered 400 = billion=20 barrels of oil without ever drilling a hole in the ground! This = helps us=20 to understand how undependable these numbers are for worldwide = proven oil=20 reserves.

As you can=20 see, the curve that traces the historic record of oil discovery = peaks=20 around 1960. In other words, Hubbert=92s peak for oil discovery = came and=20 went 40 years ago.

The curve for=20 oil usage, as you can see, is a rising curve and will become a = bell-shaped=20 curve eventually. Note that for the last quarter century, we=92ve = been using=20 oil faster than we have been discovering it. World reserves should = have=20 decreased during that time by about 200 billion barrels. Instead, = as we=92ve=20 seen, they=92ve increased by 400 billion barrels. In any case, it = should be=20 possible, given this much information, to make a prediction = similar to the=20 one that Hubbert made for the continental United States for = worldwide oil=20 production.

One such=20 estimate was published in 1998 in Scientific American. It predicts = that we=20 will have a worldwide maximum in oil production just about = now=97around the=20 middle of the decade 2000=962010. What will happen when we reach = that peak=20 we don=92t really know. But we had a foretaste in 1973 and =9279 = when the OPEC=20 countries took advantage of the supply shortage in the United = States and=20 shut down the valve a bit. What happened, as you may recall, is = that we=20 had instant panic and despair for the future of our way of life, = and=20 mile-long lines at gas stations.

We don=92t know=20 what=92s going to happen at the next peak, but we do know that = those past=20 peaks were artificial and temporary. The next one will not be = artificial=20 and it will not be temporary.

However, we=20 have to use caution in evaluating these types of predictions. One = crucial=20 quantity that goes into making such an estimate is knowing how = much oil=20 Mother Nature originally made for us=97that is, how much oil was = in the=20 ground before we ever started pumping it. The Scientific American = estimate=20 used 1.8 trillion barrels of oil as the baseline number. Today it = looks=20 like 2.1=962.2 trillion barrels might be more accurate. That = number=97the=20 total amount of oil that ever existed=97tends to increase with = time for a=20 variety of reasons.

First, new=20 technology and new discoveries have exactly the same effect=97they = both make=20 more oil available. Secondly, as oil becomes scarcer and the price = goes=20 up, more oil becomes available at the increased price, because you = can=20 invest more capital into pulling it out of the ground. And = finally, these=20 estimates depend to some extent on those proven reserve numbers = and, as=20 we=92ve already seen, those numbers are not very reliable. = Nevertheless, the=20 central idea of the Hubbert Curve is certainly correct: the supply = of any=20 natural resource invariably rises from zero to a maximum point, = and then=20 it falls forever. Oil will behave in the same way.

In 1997,=20 Kenneth Deffeyes, a former Shell Oil geologist who=92s now an = emeritus=20 professor of geosciences at Princeton, published a book he = entitled=20 Hubbert=92s Peak=97The Impending World Oil Shortage. In = it, Deffeyes=20 said he knew that Hubbert had been right and that the peak for = domestic=20 production had been reached when he saw this sentence in 1971 in = the=20 San Francisco Chronicle: =93The Texas Railroad Commission = announced=20 a 100% allowable for next month.=94

To demystify=20 that sentence, the Texas Railroad Commission was the quaintly = named cartel=20 that controlled the U.S. oil industry by making strategic use of = the=20 excess capacity for pumping in Texas. When the commission said, = =93100%=20 allowable for next month,=94 it meant that there was no longer any = excess=20 capacity. They were pumping flat-out, and therefore Hubbert=92s = Peak had=20 been reached.

Ever since=20 reading this, I=92ve thought that the signal that the worldwide = peak had=20 been reached would be when we found out that Saudi Arabian = production had=20 peaked. For the last few decades, the Saudis have been using = excess=20 pumping capacity to manipulate the world oil market in exactly the = same=20 way the Texans once did.

Well, on=20 February 24 of this year, a story appeared on the front page of = the=20 New York Times entitled =93Forecast of Rising Oil Demand = Challenges=20 Tired Saudi Fields.=94 Among other things, the article said that = Saudi=20 Arabia=92s oil fields are in decline, prompting industry and = government=20 officials to raise serious questions about whether the kingdom = will be=20 able to satisfy the world=92s thirst for oil in the coming years.=20

This is a=20 New York Times story, so it=92s very long, as many = Times=20 stories are, and it=92s written in a style in which each = successive=20 paragraph is contradicted by the next paragraph. This is called = =93balanced=20 reporting.=94 Sure enough, much farther down in the article, we = find these=20 words: =93Some economists are optimistic that if oil prices rise = high=20 enough, advanced recovery techniques will be applied, averting = supply=20 problems.=94 But here comes the contradiction in the next = paragraph, =93But,=20 privately, some Saudi oil officials are less sanguine.=94 =

I = don=92t know=20 whether we will look back years from now and say that this was the = beginning of the end of the age of oil. We=92re much too close to = it to=20 tell, and our figures are, overall, much too uncertain. But, to = those=20 people who are aware of the Hubbert=92s Peak predictions, as the = writer of=20 this article apparently was not, this was a chilling = report.

Economists=20 tell us that there can never be a gap between supply and demand = because=20 the process is regulated by price. That=92s never been true in the = case of=20 oil, because it has always been controlled by cartels, first in = Texas and=20 later by OPEC. However, once the peak occurs, OPEC will lose = control of=20 the situation, and the price mechanism will kick in with a = vengeance. But=20 the supply can keep up with the price only if there is something = to=20 supply.

I=92m sometimes=20 asked, what about replenishing our oil reserves through deep-ocean = exploration? I=92m already factoring in close-to-shore oil = production, but=20 the deep oceans are essentially unexplored and, it=92s true, we = don=92t know=20 whether there=92s any oil out there. Over the last hundreds of = millions of=20 years, oil typically has been manufactured in places that are rich = in=20 life, which deep oceans are not. But the landmasses have moved = around over=20 geologic time, so there may be deep-ocean oil reserves. =

Even so, deep=20 oceans are technically extremely difficult places to drill for = oil. That=20 leaves us with only two remaining reservoirs=97the South China = Sea, which=20 currently has seven countries claiming mineral rights to it; and = Siberia,=20 which has very bad access problems. And those resources, of = course, are=20 finite also. So let=92s see what else there is to use, aside from=20 oil.

The word=20 =93oil=94 covers more than just the conventional light crude that = we=92ve been=20 pumping up to now. It also covers heavy oil, oil sands, and tar = sands.=20 Heavy oil is essentially what=92s left behind in the field after = you pump=20 the light crude away. And, of course, if you put more money = in=97that=92s the=20 price mechanism=97you can usually squeeze a little more oil out of = any=20 field. But it=92s both more costly and more time-consuming to get = that oil=20 out. And the more you pump out, the heavier it gets.

Natural gas=20 could be a very good substitute for oil. Cars that are not very = different=20 from those we drive today can run on compressed natural gas, and = it=92s a=20 particularly clean-burning fuel. But if we turn to natural gas in = a major=20 way to replace diminishing supplies of oil, it will only be a = temporary=20 solution. The Hubbert Peak for natural gas is only a decade or so = behind=20 Hubbert=92s Peak for oil.

Oil was=20 created when so-called source rock, full of organic inclusions, = sank deep=20 within the earth. The inside of the earth is heated by natural=20 radioactivity, and the deeper you go, the hotter it gets. This = source rock=20 sank just deep enough into the heated interior for the organic = matter to=20 get cooked into oil. Rock that sank deeper got overcooked and = became=20 natural gas. Rock that sank to a more shallow level became shale = oil,=20 which is essentially unborn oil that can be made into a fuel by=20 strip-mining, crushing, and heating the rocks until you generate a = usable=20 liquid. People who have invested many millions of dollars into = trying to=20 exploit this resource have come to the conclusion that it will = probably=20 always be energy-negative, meaning that you will always have to = put more=20 energy into acquiring and processing it than you will ever get out = of=20 it.

Methane=20 hydrate is a solid that looks like ice, but that burns if you = ignite it.=20 It consists of methane trapped in a sort of cage of water = molecules and it=20 gets created when methane comes into contact with water under very = high=20 pressure at very low temperatures close to the freezing point of = water.=20 Nobody has any idea of where all it is, how much there is, whether = it can=20 be mined, or how it could be used=97all we know is that this stuff = exists.=20

Finally,=20 there is coal. We are told that there is enough coal in the ground = for=20 hundreds, maybe even thousands of years, at the present rate of = use. The=20 fact that these estimates range over a factor of ten tells you = immediately=20 that nobody has the foggiest notion of how much coal is actually=20 available. But even those projections might be considered = reliable,=20 compared to the second part of that optimistic sentence: =93at the = present=20 rate of use=94! We=92ll get to that in a moment.

The largest=20 coal deposits are in the United States, and China and Russia have = very=20 large reserves as well. Coal can be liquefied and made into a = substitute=20 for oil. That was done in Nazi Germany during World War II, and in = South=20 Africa under apartheid. That alone should tell you that you have = to be=20 fairly desperate to do it, but it can be done.

But, coal is=20 a dirty, dirty fuel. It often comes with nasty impurities, = including=20 mercury, arsenic, and sulfur. The mercury that accumulates in the = bodies=20 of tuna or swordfish=97and which has led to FDA warnings to limit = our=20 consumption of these fish=97originates in coal-fired power plants = in the=20 United States. We use now about twice as much energy from oil as = we do=20 from coal, so if you wanted to mine enough coal to replace the = missing=20 oil, you=92d have to mine it at a much higher rate, not only to = replace the=20 oil, but also because the conversion process to oil is extremely=20 inefficient. You=92d have to mine it at levels at least five times = beyond=20 those we mine now=97a coal-mining industry on an absolutely = unimaginable=20 scale.

And even that=20 doesn=92t take into account the world=92s increasing population, = or the fact=20 that nations like China and India want to have a higher standard = of=20 living, which means burning more energy. Finally, it doesn=92t = take into=20 account the Hubbert=92s Peak effect, which is just as valid for = coal as it=20 is for oil. Long before we have mined the last ton, we will have = started=20 to deplete our ability to get the stuff out of the ground. So, = it=92s a very=20 good bet that the governing =93rate of use=94 number I mentioned = earlier is=20 not hundreds or thousands of years, and that no more than = one-tenth of=20 that timeframe represents a realistic estimate.

What all this=20 suggests is that if we accept the economists=92 solution and just = let the=20 marketplace do its thing as we make use of all the fossil fuel we = can,=20 we=92ll start running out of all fossil fuels by the end = of this=20 century.

So, what does=20 the future hold? Well, for one thing, there will be an oil crisis = very=20 soon. Whether that means it has already begun or won=92t happen = until later=20 in this decade or sometime in the next decade, I don=92t know. In = my view,=20 the numbers are not dependable enough for us to say. However, = while the=20 difference between those estimates may be very important to us, = it=92s of no=20 importance at all on the timescale of human history. Either we, = our=20 children, or perhaps our grandchildren, are in for some very, very = bad=20 times. If we turn to all the other fossil fuels and burn them up = as fast=20 as we can, they will all probably start to run out by the end of = the 21st=20 century. Assuming that our planet remains habitable after such a = vast=20 consumption binge, we will have to invent a way to live without = fossil=20 fuels. (See sidebar =93Too Hot To Handle?=94)

How about=20 hydrogen? Both President Bush and California governor = Schwarzenegger have=20 publicly embraced hydrogen as a solution to our fuel problems. But = there=20 are only two commercially viable ways of making hydrogen. One is = to make=20 it out of methane, which is a fossil fuel. The other is to use = fossil fuel=20 to generate the electricity that you need to electrolyze water and = get=20 hydrogen. The economics of doing that are such that you end up = using the=20 equivalent of six gallons of gasoline to make enough hydrogen to = replace=20 one gallon of gasoline. So this solution is not a winner in the = short run.=20 In the long run, if the problem of harnessing thermonuclear fusion = can be=20 solved and we have more power than we know what to do with, you = could use=20 that form of energy to make hydrogen for mobile fuel. I=92ll get = to that a=20 little later.

There is also=20 wind power, which many now see as a viable energy alternative. And = it is,=20 but only to a limited extent. In regions like northern Europe, = where=20 fossil fuels are very expensive and the wind is really strong, = wind power=20 will someday come to rival hydroelectric power as a source of = energy. But=20 there are relatively few places on earth where the wind blows = strongly and=20 steadily enough for it to be a dependable energy source, and = people don=92t=20 really like wind farms=97they=92re ugly and they=92re noisy. Wind = power will=20 always be a part of the solution. But it=92s not a magic bullet. = It=92s not=20 going to save us.

In recent=20 years, the debate over nuclear power has revived, with proponents=20 maintaining that we can find environmentally sound and politically = acceptable ways to deal with the waste and security hazards. But = even=20 assuming that to be true, the potential is limited. To produce = enough=20 nuclear power to equal the power we currently get from fossil = fuels, you=20 would have to build 10,000 of the largest possible nuclear power = plants.=20 That=92s a huge, probably nonviable initiative, and at that burn = rate, our=20 known reserves of uranium would last only for 10 or 20 = years.

As things=20 stand today, the only possible substitutes for our fossil-fuel = dependency=20 are light from the sun and nuclear energy. Developing a way of = running a=20 civilization like ours on those resources is an enormous = challenge. A=20 great deal of it is social and political=97we=92re in the midst of = a=20 presidential election, and have you heard either party say a word = about=20 this extremely important subject? But there are also huge = technical=20 problems to be solved. So, you might well ask, what can Caltech do = to=20 help?

The ultimate=20 solution to our energy problem would be to master the power of = controlled=20 thermonuclear fusion, which we=92ve been talking about doing for = more than=20 half a century. The solution has been 25 years away for the past = 50 years,=20 and it is still 25 years away. Beyond those sobering statistics, = there are=20 at least five or six schemes for harnessing fusion energy that I = know of.=20 One of them, called the spheromak, is studied here at Caltech in = an=20 experimental program run by Professor of Applied Physics Paul = Bellan and=20 his research group.

In the=20 spheromak, electric currents flowing in a hot ionized = gas=97otherwise known=20 as a plasma-=97interact with magnetic fields embedded in the = plasma. As=20 these fields and currents push the plasma around, new fields =
and=20 currents are created. There=92s a sort of self-organizing = interaction=20 occurring. You can see in this sequence of snapshots below, = starting from=20 the top, that the plasma is organizing itself into a jet and then = a kink=20 develops in the jet. This is something that happens all by itself, = and=20 it=92s not something that happens only occasionally=97the gas = always=20 self-organizes like that. After the kink develops, it breaks away = from the=20 body of the jet as a doughnut. If you can find a way to maintain = that=20 doughnut and keep it going=97that is to pump in enough energy to = keep it=20 from decaying=97the doughnut has the perfect geometry required for = containing a hot plasma undergoing thermonuclear = fusion.

Fusion research at Caltech.

But attaining=20 this objective is far off. The existing apparatus is much too = small to=20 reach the hundred million degree temperatures needed to generate = power.=20 The Bellan team is studying the fundamental physics of the = self-organizing=20 process in the hope it can be used to create and sustain the = desired=20 fusion plasma confinement geometry in a reliable, controlled=20 manner.

There=92s=20 another group at Caltech whose efforts are aimed largely at the = other=20 alternative=97solar energy. Their program is called Power the = Planet:=20 Caltech Center for Sustainable Energy Research. Members include = applied=20 physicist Harry Atwater, chemists Harry Gray, Nathan Lewis, and = Jonas=20 Peters, and materials scientist Sossina Haile.

Furthermore,=20 our former provost Steve Koonin recently stepped down from the = provostship=20 and took a leave of absence from the Caltech physics faculty to = become=20 chief scientist at BP. BP, formerly British Petroleum, is one of = the=20 largest energy companies in the world, and so he now has one of = the most=20 important energy positions in the world.

The fact that=20 these and similar scientific and technical efforts are under way = at=20 Caltech and elsewhere are encouraging, but they are not enough. = What we=20 really need is leadership with the courage and vision to talk to = us as=20 John F. Kennedy did in 1960, when he pledged to put a man on the = moon by=20 the end of the decade. It=92s the same kind of problem. We = understand the=20 basic underlying scientific principles, but we have huge technical = problems to overcome.

If our=20 leaders were to say to the scientific and technical community, = =93We will=20 give you the resources, and you=97right now, even before it = becomes=20 imperative=97will find a way to kick the fossil-fuel habit,=94 I = think that it=20 could be done. But we have to have the political leadership to = make it=20 work.

 

 

3D"Go 3D"Go 3D"go
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